The Long Dark Tech-Time of the Soul

This is a technology focused blog that describes my trials and tribulations with techonlogy which, no matter what brave new world is promised to be just around the corner, nearly always fails to live up to expectations.

Friday, July 23, 2004

I want my free WiFi

I've always thought this big hooh-hah about WiFi networks being this huge phenomenom was a crock of ****. Okay so WiFi is this huge phenomenom, but WiFi in airports, WiFi in cafes and WiFi everywhere else is never something a company will make big money on. The reasons are manyfold, but the two big ones are the lack of universal coverage and the lack of universal access to what coverage there is.

Even more important you need both coverage and access simulataneously - if there is not WiFi network then you're hosed, and if there is and you have to fork over another bundle of cash then you're also hose. People want WiFi in 95% of places they would want it, plus to have a single billing and a single all you can eat fee - and a low one at that! Okay in the USA we don't exactly have universal cellphone coverage, unlike say Europe. But its as good as for the vast majority of the population and we only really have two major networks GSM and CDMA to deal with roaming. WiFi isn't anything like the coverage, not even 1% and there are literally dozens if not hundreds or thousands of providers who don't talk to each other to allow access to each others WiFi networks.

While the popularity of WiFi has meant almost any place there is Internet access may provide WiFi you could jack into surreptitiously for free (like your neighbors!) they are usually not ones intended for public use. This happened to me recently when I stayed in a timeshare that happened to be directly over the management office that had its entire network open and unprotected for my free use. As new technologies for easily configuring security on home WiFi networks become ubiquitous even that option will disappear and free access will be restricted to those who deliberately open up their WiFi networks for free.

In fact I think providing WiFi hotspots as a business model will go away within two to five years as WiMax and 3G eat its lunch. Sudenly people will wonder what all the fuss was about just like with that other marketing hype anomaly - WAP.

The enlightened souls are already realizing that trying to make money from WiFi is basically a waste of time, and its counterproductive to actually charge people for accessing it. Free WiFi should instead be used as a feature to attract customers rather than as a direct revenue stream. This is exactly what an article from the Seattle Pi is saying. Its only a matter of time before Starbucks decides that free WiFi is the hip new thing, and all others major chains like McDonalds will follow, eventually even airports will realize its a public service to offer free WiFi hotspots.

By that time WiMax will be enabling entire communities and cities to regain control of their data networks and offer internet to vast areas for free or very low cost. And ultimately its clear that those laggards the mobile phone carriers will eventually figure out their role in life is to provide a vast and all encompasing wireless internet dial tone to the entire country. Yes, the bandwidth they offer will always lag behind what is available by wired connectivity to our homes, but basically by the time it reaches current broadband rates (a reliable 1.5Mbps download) it will be enough for most of what people want to do. Yeah, thats not enough to stream HDTV but it is more than enough to stream high quality video, audio and transfer a lot of data real fast. In fact I would go as far to say that the next revolution will be for a big drop off in DSL usage in the five year time frame as many people start just hooking into their cellphone as their primary and even only network connectivity.

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