The Beginning of the End of Windows Domination

I know some people will tell me "Beginning? It's the middle if not the end of the end already..." and others will say "You're a crazy pinko Linux fanboy, it'll never happen" but I'm sorry, I think I'm right. I've been right on things before (and wrong too) but this time I really feel it. I'm subconciously connecting many dots of Linux and Mac adoption, channeling the anti-Micrsofot zeitgeist, witnessing how Windows fails to satisfy its users and confuses others, and watching wave after wave of online OS-agnostic network centric apps step into core home computing roles.

Notice also that my title didn't say "End of Microsoft", it says "End of Windows" and I didn't actually say "End of Windows" period, but "End of Windows Domination". If you want something more definitive than that then I'd say I'm predicting:

"Within 10 years (ie. by 2017) the operating systems in use at home and business will move to a three solution installation base of Windows, Mac and Linux, such that Windows alone will no longer be the dominant (by percentage) installation".

Basically I'm looking back at how far we have come from ten years ago (1997) when users were suffering with the hideous Windows 95, desperately awaiting Windows 98 with great, soon to be dashed hope, and still years from the first truly useful and stable Microsoft home operating system (Windows 2000). I won't put the end of domination date any sooner than ten years hence, although I actually think with greater than 50% certainty my prediction will be "obvious" if not reality within five years. I think it is likely that Linux installations will exceed Windows installations within a 10 year time frame.

I also think that there is a strong likelihood that as Linux and Mac users begin to dominate as a combined user base Apple will start working on a system that will yield a high level of compatibility with Linux such that Linux programs will run on Mac OS and visa-versa. This will not be so hard since the vast majority of Linux computers are on Intel hardware, and MacOS is already Unix based. This will be an important strategy for Apple as they get sufficiently big to start becoming a large and fruitful (pun intended) target for viruses, malware and disgruntled users viewing them as yet another proprietary evil-doer (as eventually happened to Yahoo, Google, YouTube and all the other once shiny never-do-wrong upstart little guys). So watch out for Apple flavored Linux in attempt to cut of Ubuntu domination at the pass.

I also think that the underlying operating system running on a computer will largely be irrelevant by 2017 since a) huge amounts of storage and processing will be done online only, and b) local "thick client" applications will delivered as a self contained virtual machine. As such the underlying operating system on a machine will just not matter, so long as it can run a virtual machine host and support a "browser" like environment for online apps. More important than the operating system will be which suite of personal information management apps a user adopts to manage their email, browsing, media management and document processing. Microsoft will certainly compete in this space, but judging by their initial efforts they have a long road of development or acquisitions to hoe.

In the mean time I'm doing my best to become OS agnostic long ahead of the curve. Most of my document storage and communication is done via open source any-platform apps like Firefox, Thunderbird, Pidgin and my important documents are often to be found stored in IMAP folders and anywhere other than my home computer. This means I can move from computer to computer with relative ease - there are few if any expensive and proprietary apps that tie me to any one system or OS. Even in my professional life I spend 95% of my time writing platform agnostic code consisting of standardized and widely supported languages like Java, JavaScript, XML, HTML and CSS.